From Paul Krugman's 8/26 NY Times article:
How could Microsoft have been so blind? Here's where Ibn Khaldun comes in. He was a 14th-century Islamic philosopher who basically invented what we would now call the social sciences. And one insight he had, based on the history of his native North Africa, was that there was a rhythm to the rise and fall of dynasties.
Desert tribesmen, he argued, always have more courage and social cohesion than settled, civilized folk, so every once in a while they will sweep in and conquer lands whose rulers have become corrupt and complacent. They create a new dynasty - and, over time, become corrupt and complacent themselves, ready to be overrun by a new set of barbarians.
*******************************************
How could Microsoft have been so blind? Here's where Ibn Khaldun comes in. He was a 14th-century Islamic philosopher who basically invented what we would now call the social sciences. And one insight he had, based on the history of his native North Africa, was that there was a rhythm to the rise and fall of dynasties.
Desert tribesmen, he argued, always have more courage and social cohesion than settled, civilized folk, so every once in a while they will sweep in and conquer lands whose rulers have become corrupt and complacent. They create a new dynasty - and, over time, become corrupt and complacent themselves, ready to be overrun by a new set of barbarians.
*******************************************
Krugman’s essay is about
Microsoft, but his conclusion can be applied to many other rapid changes, or
even some that are not so rapid. Three
years ago when the Franklin County Patriots started holding rallies in various
parks and meeting halls, I tried to sound the alarm to my Democratic friends in
our area. I was told not to worry and
that all the tea party excitement would burn itself out before the next
election. I did a little checking and
found Americans for Prosperity and figured out where the money was coming from
for t-shirts, flags, buttons, hall rental and one highly paid organizer. I knew this ill wind was not going to blow
itself away. Still the Democrats were
complacent. Not just in Franklin County,
but in most of Missouri. “Corrupt” may
be too harsh a word, but there was definitely a certain amount of
self-preservation hindering a cohesive plan to win seats in the
legislature. Consequently, Franklin
County has some of the craziest tea partiers in the state (and that’s saying a
lot) filling those seats in Jeff City.
Like the Bedouin tribes with
nothing to lose, the anti-Sharia law,
guns for kids, souls for hire
crowd swooped in and now control a veto-proof majority in both houses.
Sad to say, the same thing
appears to be happening on the national level.
While Democratic leaders play it safe and protect their fiefdoms, men
and women who once would have been too outrageous even for cartoonists are
winning over the citizens with fear mongering and visions of grandiosity.
I had a college history
professor in 1958 who was a refugee from the Hungarian revolt and ultimate
communist takeover in his country. His
English wasn’t all that good, but he knew many of the same lessons taught by
Ibn Khaldun. He wrote on the board: “Times change. Men doesn’t.”
As much as I hate to
believe those “rise and fall”
interpretations of history, it’s hard to ignore how powerful empires of the
past eventually became corrupt enough to rot from within. I read the article on the listserv about
how the big banks are up to their necks in debt and how no one can stop them
from their reckless behavior. Then I think
about how there really isn’t any “money” but only pieces of paper being passed
around, and it’s hard to be optimistic about our future as “the greatest nation
on Earth.”
Stay tuned.
No comments:
Post a Comment